Menu | Explaining level changesIan Robson v Steve Goodall (Fri 16 Feb 2024)Match won by Ian Robson. Result: 15-11,15-13,15-13.Starting level for Ian Robson: 326, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Steve Goodall: 140, level confidence: 63%. Ian Robson to win as he is currently playing 133% better than Steve Goodall. Ian Robson won all of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ian Robson played 33% better than Steve Goodall in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ian Robson was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 207 and 326 without affecting his level. As Ian Robson has played below his allowed range at 196, his level reduction is 5.7% before damping. On the assumption that Ian Robson would normally have been playing at level 272 (based on typical behaviour), Steve Goodall played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.4% and 13% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ian Robson changes to -2% and Steve Goodall changes to +13%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ian Robson becomes -2% and for Steve Goodall becomes +8%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Poult Wood Boxes' so the adjustment for Ian Robson is -1% and for Steve Goodall is +4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ian Robson: 86%, Steve Goodall: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ian Robson: 65%, Steve Goodall: 60%. A final adjustment of -0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ian Robson: 322, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Steve Goodall: 145, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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