Menu | Explaining level changesAlex Codling v John Greenwood (Tue 16 Jan 2024)Match won by Alex Codling. Result: 15-6,15-7,15-1.Starting level for Alex Codling: 494, level confidence: 62%. Starting level for John Greenwood: 387, level confidence: 52%. Alex Codling to win as he is currently playing 28% better than John Greenwood. Alex Codling won all of the games and 76% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 221% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alex Codling played 221% better than John Greenwood in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alex Codling actually played at a level of 784 and John Greenwood at a level of 244. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 59% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 50% and 50% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alex Codling changes to +42% and John Greenwood changes to -50%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alex Codling becomes +20.8% and for John Greenwood becomes -25%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Poult Wood Boxes' so the adjustment for Alex Codling is +10.4% and for John Greenwood is -10.9%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that John Greenwood is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alex Codling: 79%, John Greenwood: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alex Codling: 50%, John Greenwood: 45%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Alex Codling: 543, level confidence: 50%. Final level for John Greenwood: 368, level confidence: 45%. Notes
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