Menu | Explaining level changesNick Kidson v Ian Parris (Mon 18 Dec 2023)Match won by Ian Parris. Result: 7-15,4-15,11-15.Starting level for Nick Kidson: 1,244, level confidence: 62%. Starting level for Ian Parris: 3,747, level confidence: 51%. Ian Parris to win as he is currently playing 201% better than Nick Kidson. Ian Parris won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ian Parris played 105% better than Nick Kidson in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ian Parris was taking it easy by anything up to 25%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,853 and 3,747 without affecting his level. In this case, Ian Parris played at level 2,682 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Ian Parris would normally have been playing at level 2,827 (based on typical behaviour), Nick Kidson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.4%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ian Parris changes to 0% and Nick Kidson changes to +2.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ian Parris becomes 0% and for Nick Kidson becomes +2.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Poult Wood Boxes' so the adjustment for Ian Parris is 0% and for Nick Kidson is +1.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ian Parris: 72%, Nick Kidson: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ian Parris: 59%, Nick Kidson: 65%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Nick Kidson: 1,257, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Ian Parris: 3,741, level confidence: 59%. Notes
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