Menu | Explaining level changesRachel Lambert v Katie Bennett (Sun 19 Nov 2023)Match won by Katie Bennett. Result: 9-15,15-10,10-15,8-15.Starting level for Rachel Lambert: 752, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Katie Bennett: 528, level confidence: 66%. Rachel Lambert to win as she is currently playing 42% better than Katie Bennett. Katie Bennett won 75% of the games and 57% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 31% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Katie Bennett played 27% better than Rachel Lambert in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Katie Bennett actually played at a level of 710 and Rachel Lambert at a level of 559. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Katie Bennett changes to +28% and Rachel Lambert changes to -23%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Katie Bennett becomes +14.9% and for Rachel Lambert becomes -13%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Poult Wood Boxes' so the adjustment for Katie Bennett is +7.4% and for Rachel Lambert is -6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Rachel Lambert is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Katie Bennett: 81%, Rachel Lambert: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Katie Bennett: 60%, Rachel Lambert: 65%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rachel Lambert: 715, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Katie Bennett: 566, level confidence: 60%. Notes
|