Menu | Explaining level changesSimon Porter v Thelma Tinnams (Sun 24 Sep 2023)Match won by Simon Porter. Result: 11-2,11-1.Starting level for Simon Porter: 694, level confidence: 21%. Starting level for Thelma Tinnams: 233, level confidence: 23%. Simon Porter to win as he is currently playing 198% better than Thelma Tinnams. Simon Porter won all of the games and 88% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 633% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Porter played 633% better than Thelma Tinnams in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Simon Porter actually played at a level of 1,089 and Thelma Tinnams at a level of 148. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 57% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 30% respectively. As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 22% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Porter changes to +19% and Thelma Tinnams changes to -20%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Porter becomes +10.7% and for Thelma Tinnams becomes -11%. Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Bromley SC Open 2023' so the adjustment is unchanged. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Simon Porter is limited to +10% and Thelma Tinnams is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Porter: 46%, Thelma Tinnams: 48%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Porter: 30%, Thelma Tinnams: 30%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Simon Porter: 762, level confidence: 30%. Final level for Thelma Tinnams: 222, level confidence: 30%. Notes
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