Menu | Explaining level changesIan Parris v Mark Crichton (Wed 19 Apr 2023)Match won by Ian Parris. Result: 15-3,15-1,15-5.Starting level for Ian Parris: 2,965, level confidence: 59%. Starting level for Mark Crichton: 3,088, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Mark Crichton to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Ian Parris. Ian Parris won all of the games and 83% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 400% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ian Parris played 400% better than Mark Crichton in this match. Ian Parris has played significantly better in this match than his level suggests and this is backed up by his last three results so use accelerated level adjustment to get his level right more quickly. As a result, his pre-match level has been increased to 3349. The remaining calculations use this as his level coming in to this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ian Parris actually played at a level of 7,191 and Mark Crichton at a level of 1,438. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 115% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ian Parris changes to +108% and Mark Crichton changes to -75%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ian Parris becomes +28.3% and for Mark Crichton becomes -22%. Given Ian Parris's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 24% has been applied to his level change. Given Mark Crichton's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 20% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Poult Wood Boxes' so the adjustment for Ian Parris is +11% and for Mark Crichton is -8.1%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ian Parris is limited to +10% and Mark Crichton is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Including the accelerated level adjustment, the total adjustment for Ian Parris is +24%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ian Parris: 76%, Mark Crichton: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ian Parris: 34%, Mark Crichton: 37%. A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ian Parris: 3,681, level confidence: 34%. Final level for Mark Crichton: 2,966, level confidence: 37%. Notes
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