Menu | Explaining level changesSteve Goodall v Alex Hazell (Mon 10 Apr 2023)Match won by Alex Hazell. Result: 11-15,10-15,9-15.Starting level for Steve Goodall: 156, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Starting level for Alex Hazell: 345, level confidence: 51%. Alex Hazell to win as he is currently playing 121% better than Steve Goodall. Alex Hazell won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alex Hazell played 52% better than Steve Goodall in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Alex Hazell was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 229 and 345 without affecting his level. In this case, Alex Hazell played at level 263 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Alex Hazell would normally have been playing at level 293 (based on typical behaviour), Steve Goodall played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 7.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alex Hazell changes to 0% and Steve Goodall changes to +5.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alex Hazell becomes 0% and for Steve Goodall becomes +4.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Poult Wood Boxes' so the adjustment for Alex Hazell is 0% and for Steve Goodall is +2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alex Hazell: 71%, Steve Goodall: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alex Hazell: 59%, Steve Goodall: 71%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Steve Goodall: 159, level confidence: 71%. Final level for Alex Hazell: 344, level confidence: 59%. Notes
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