Menu | Explaining level changesKatie Bennett v Alex Hazell (Wed 30 Nov 2022)Match won by Katie Bennett. Result: 15-2,15-6,15-13.Starting level for Katie Bennett: 420, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Alex Hazell: 336, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Katie Bennett to win as she is currently playing 25% better than Alex Hazell. Katie Bennett won all of the games and 68% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 114% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Katie Bennett played 114% better than Alex Hazell in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Katie Bennett actually played at a level of 550 and Alex Hazell at a level of 257. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Katie Bennett changes to +27% and Alex Hazell changes to -22%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Katie Bennett becomes +14.5% and for Alex Hazell becomes -12%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Poult Wood Boxes' so the adjustment for Katie Bennett is +7.2% and for Alex Hazell is -5.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Alex Hazell is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. As Katie Bennett has a provisional level, this match has been used to calibrate her level so Alex Hazell's level has been left unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Katie Bennett: 83%, Alex Hazell: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Katie Bennett: 63%, Alex Hazell: 69%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Katie Bennett: 450, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Alex Hazell: 335, level confidence: 69%. Notes
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