Menu | Explaining level changesBarry Prescott v Mark Crichton (Wed 12 Oct 2022)Match won by Mark Crichton. Result: 15-9,15-12,13-15,4-15,16-17.Starting level for Barry Prescott: 1,053, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Mark Crichton: 3,155, level confidence: 57%. Mark Crichton to win as he is currently playing 200% better than Barry Prescott. Mark Crichton won 60% of the games and 52% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Crichton played 9% better than Barry Prescott in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mark Crichton was taking it easy by anything up to 24%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,570 and 3,155 without affecting his level. As Mark Crichton has played below his allowed range at 1,345, his level reduction is 17% before damping. On the assumption that Mark Crichton would normally have been playing at level 2,386 (based on typical behaviour), Barry Prescott played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 44%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.3% and 23% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Crichton changes to -9.3% and Barry Prescott changes to +18%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Crichton becomes -4.1% and for Barry Prescott becomes +10.2%. Given Mark Crichton's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Poult Wood Boxes' so the adjustment for Mark Crichton is -1.6% and for Barry Prescott is +5.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Crichton: 76%, Barry Prescott: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Crichton: 46%, Barry Prescott: 52%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Barry Prescott: 1,105, level confidence: 52%. Final level for Mark Crichton: 3,099, level confidence: 46%. Notes
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