Menu | Explaining level changesDerek Searles v Nicola Rutherford (Sat 02 Jul 2022)Match won by Derek Searles. Result: 15-8,15-10,15-7.Starting level for Derek Searles: 953, level confidence: 63%. Starting level for Nicola Rutherford: 327, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Derek Searles to win as he is currently playing 191% better than Nicola Rutherford. Derek Searles won all of the games and 64% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 80% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Derek Searles played 80% better than Nicola Rutherford in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Derek Searles was taking it easy by anything up to 23%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 488 and 953 without affecting his level. In this case, Derek Searles played at level 655 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Derek Searles would normally have been playing at level 729 (based on typical behaviour), Nicola Rutherford played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Derek Searles changes to 0% and Nicola Rutherford changes to +5.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Derek Searles becomes 0% and for Nicola Rutherford becomes +4.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Poult Wood Boxes' so the adjustment for Derek Searles is 0% and for Nicola Rutherford is +2.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Derek Searles: 80%, Nicola Rutherford: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Derek Searles: 63%, Nicola Rutherford: 67%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Derek Searles: 952, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Nicola Rutherford: 334, level confidence: 67%. Notes
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