Menu | Explaining level changesAdrian Waghorn v Derek Searles (Wed 30 Sep 2020)Match won by Derek Searles. Result: 6-15,4-15,5-15.Starting level for Adrian Waghorn: 100, level confidence: 33%. Starting level for Derek Searles: 936, level confidence: 48%. Derek Searles to win as he is currently playing 836% better than Adrian Waghorn. Derek Searles won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Derek Searles played 200% better than Adrian Waghorn in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Derek Searles was taking it easy by anything up to 58%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 108 and 936 without affecting his level. In this case, Derek Searles played at level 344 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Derek Searles would normally have been playing at level 395 (based on typical behaviour), Adrian Waghorn played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Derek Searles changes to 0% and Adrian Waghorn changes to +4.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Derek Searles becomes 0% and for Adrian Waghorn becomes +3.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Poult Wood Boxes' so the adjustment for Derek Searles is 0% and for Adrian Waghorn is +1.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Derek Searles: 69%, Adrian Waghorn: 58%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Derek Searles: 39%, Adrian Waghorn: 33%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Adrian Waghorn: 102, level confidence: 33%. Final level for Derek Searles: 935, level confidence: 39%. Notes
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