Menu | Explaining level changesBarney Scott v Mike Tonge (Wed 27 Nov 2019)Match won by Barney Scott. Result: 15-5,15-7,17-15.Starting level for Barney Scott: 477, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Mike Tonge: 715, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Mike Tonge to win as he is currently playing 50% better than Barney Scott. Barney Scott won all of the games and 64% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Barney Scott played 74% better than Mike Tonge in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Barney Scott actually played at a level of 771 and Mike Tonge at a level of 443. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 62% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 48% and 48% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Barney Scott changes to +48% and Mike Tonge changes to -43%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Barney Scott becomes +23.4% and for Mike Tonge becomes -21%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Poult Wood Boxes' so the adjustment for Barney Scott is +12% and for Mike Tonge is -9.7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Barney Scott is limited to +10% and Mike Tonge is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Barney Scott: 85%, Mike Tonge: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Barney Scott: 53%, Mike Tonge: 55%. A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Barney Scott: 524, level confidence: 53%. Final level for Mike Tonge: 682, level confidence: 55%. Notes
|