Menu | Explaining level changesSimon Dennis v Graham Woodage (Sat 27 Oct 2018)Match won by Simon Dennis. Result: 11-6,11-7,11-5.Starting level for Simon Dennis: 916, level confidence: 48%. Starting level for Graham Woodage: 400, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Simon Dennis to win as he is currently playing 129% better than Graham Woodage. Simon Dennis won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Dennis played 83% better than Graham Woodage in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Simon Dennis was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 591 and 916 without affecting his level. In this case, Simon Dennis played at level 751 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Simon Dennis would normally have been playing at level 769 (based on typical behaviour), Graham Woodage played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.4%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Dennis changes to 0% and Graham Woodage changes to +1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Dennis becomes 0% and for Graham Woodage becomes +1%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Aylesbury Boxes' so the adjustment for Simon Dennis is 0% and for Graham Woodage is +0.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Dennis: 70%, Graham Woodage: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Dennis: 62%, Graham Woodage: 76%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Simon Dennis: 915, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Graham Woodage: 401, level confidence: 76%. Notes
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